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New NEWS: . . . . . . . . . Exponential Spread of Coronavirus – Learn About It

Dr. David Figurski Speaks Out about the Exponential Spread of Coronavirus

Learn About It

presented by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

David Columbia Award May 2017

David H. Figurski  Professor Emeritus of Columbia University  Microbiology and Immunology

Why are the WHO, scientists, and some leaders really worried about this pandemic? Why has society been asked to basically shutdown? Why has the governor of California predicted that half of the State will be infected with the new coronavirus?

… because viruses spread exponentially throughout a population.

Exponential spread is a concept that is not intuitive to humans. Here is an easy-to-understand illustration of the explosive power of an exponential function.

Start with $0.01. Then double the amount every day. (You will have $0.02 on day 2, $0.04 on day 3, $0.08 on day 4, etc.) Continue doing this every day for a month (30 days). It’s an piggy-bank-png-clip-art-image-5a1ca3f171b701.9718908215118264174658-1exponential function because every day you double the amount of the previous day (i.e., in this case, you multiply by 2) to get a new amount.

Watch how exponential growth leads to an explosion in the amount.

On day 1, you start with $0.01.1
On day 7, you will have $0.64
On day 14, you will have $81.92
On day 21, you will have $10,485.76
On day 28, you will have $1,342,177.28
On day 30, you will have $5,368,709.12

The number of coronavirus infections in the US is about to explode! The US pandemic is like about day 14 of the example. Some people are still thinking, “No big deal.” They have no idea of what’s about to happen.

A friend sent a link to me of a video that explains exponential growth in simple, very easy to understand math. Have a look. I highly recommend it. (How is Covid-19 Growing?)

People are totally wrong to be complacent about this pandemic. There have been relatively few confirmed cases, so some people are thinking we’ve got this licked. They’re wrong for two reasons. (1) The US was unprepared for this outbreak. Few (except the very sick and some celebrities) have been tested because the US had an insufficient number of test kits. So, it’s an illusion that we are seeing so few people with the virus. (2) They don’t understand the concept of the immense power of exponential spread.Growth_Bar_Graph

The primary reason people are alarmed by the number of infections is the high death rate of people who have been infected. As of this writing, deaths are 11,402 worldwide, while cases are said to be 276,104 (WorldoMeters). Calculated death rates have ranged from 1.4% (the latest, from Wuhan) to 4%.

There are 39 million people in California, and the governor has predicted that about half (19.5 million) will be infected with coronavirus. About 18% of infections are Virus and infection, image illustrationasymptomatic (about 3,500,000 in this scenario). Since the death rate is calculated with symptomatic infections (predicted to be 16 million), the lowest death rate (1.4%) gives 224,000 deaths in Calif. if the governor’s prediction is accurate.

 

David H. Figurski, Ph.D – Molecular Biologist

Columbia University Professor Emeritus

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Brain Injury Resources . . . . . . The Resilient Soul by Karen Leavitt

Brain Injury Ressources

The Resilient Soul by Karen Leavitt

reviewed by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

 

I am so proud to be an author of a chapter, “Living Nightmare – TBI” in “The Resilient Soul” by Karen Leavitt.

This book shares poignant stories of folks meeting and surmounting their struggles as they face life’s hardships. We are all resilient souls.

 

The Resilient Soul” offers hope and encouragement.

Donna O’Donnell Figurski
author of “Prisoners without Bars: A Caregiver’s Tale”
donnafigurski.com

Learn more here.

SPEAK OUT! Are You Kidding Me?

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Survivors SPEAK OUT! Rod

Survivors SPEAK OUT! . . . Rod

presented

by Donna O’Donnell Figurski

 

Rodney Rod Rawls Survivor 1

Rod – Brain Injury Survivor

 

1. What is your name? (last name optional)

Rod

2. Where do you live? (city and/or state and/or country) Email (optional)

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA

3. On what date did you have your brain injury? At what age?

April 1, 2016 at age 56

4. How did your brain injury occur?

A motorcycle crash – I wasn’t wearing a helmet, and my head impacted the asphalt when I went over.motrocycle

5. When did you (or someone) first realize you had a problem?

A passing driver called emergency services.

6. What kind of emergency treatment, if any, did you have?

I was diagnosed as “brain dead” on arrival at the emergency room. I was placed on life-support, and my family was told they’d keep me on it for 24 to 48 hours.

7. Were you in a coma? If so, how long?

About three and a half hours after I was diagnosed as brain dead, my autonomic functions sparked back up. I was comatose for about six more hours before regaining consciousness.

8. Did you do rehab? What kind of rehab (i.e., inpatient or outpatient and occupational and/or physical and/or speech and/or other)? How long were you in rehab?

I was an outpatient for my therapy. I started with speech therapy to address my issues with communication. After two years, my doctor recommended the nearby clinic of a neuroscience institute, where I received occupational therapy and physical therapy. Occupational therapy helped me develop tools and approaches to reduce the negative impact of many of my new disabilities. During my physical therapy, I was able to use a DynaVision system (a light-training reaction device, developed to train sensory motor integration) to help redevelop my visual coordination and improve my balance issues while walking.

9. What problems or disabilities, if any, resulted from your brain injury
(e.g., balance, perception, personality, etc.)?

Rodney Rod Rawls Survivor 3

Rod – Brain Injury Survivor

• Sleep was my first battleground. Mental fatigue after poor sleep could make me completely dysfunctional – for example, unable to form sentences. I also had no buffer for raw emotions. They could make me cry or become angry with no warning and often for no obvious reason.

• Poor balance made me worry that people would think I was drinking. Therapy and a trekking (hiking) pole made a big difference for me. I’m able to go without the trekking pole most days now.

• My light-sensitivity has decreased over these last three years, but I still get overwhelmed all too often from the sounds in a restaurant or any room with multiple conversations taking place.

• My girlfriend calls me “Rod 2.0” because I’m so different. So, yes, my personality definitely changed. I used to watch TV and play video games every day; now I can’t do either one. Instead, I enjoy gardening, painting, sewing, cooking, and crafting – essentially any activity where I am creating something.

• I can no longer do math that has any complexity, and I struggle to read. I am so thankful for audiobooks!

• I’ve lost what I estimate to be upwards of 90% of my long-term memory.

• My short-term and working memory are both very unreliable now.

10. How has your life changed? Is it better? Is it worse?

My life is different, that’s all. I am a new person whose long-term memory loss means I carry very little baggage with me. My struggles have changed, but, from the stories I hear about how I was before, my quality of life has most certainly improved.

11. What do you miss the most from your pre-brain-injury life?

It would be nice to remember things when I try to, but, since I’ve lost most of my long-term memory, I don’t really know what I might be missing otherwise.

12. What do you enjoy most in your post-brain-injury life?Live in the Moment

I enjoy the “in-the-moment” nature of my life as it is now. Mindfulness meditation was so easy for me to learn because it’s how my mind works now. At any given moment, I’d have to work hard to remember what I was doing five minutes ago, and I’m rarely certain of what I’ll be doing five minutes from now, but I am always aware of so much that is happening right now. This is likely a contributor to my high level of sensitivity to chaotic environments.

13. What do you like least about your brain injury?

Perhaps it’s the varying judgements I experience. Some seem to think I’m not as bad as I let on. Some express a little too much sympathy or “understanding.” Some base their view of me on my highest-performing moments, so they think I somehow plan when to be dysfunctional. This last one is the hardest, and it comes from those closest to me.

14. Has anything helped you to accept your brain injury?

I went from being a caregiver for my son when he returned from the military with a TBI (traumatic brain injury) to becoming a TBI-survivor. Without question, he’s the one who has had the most impact on me in this area. My girlfriend is as patient as I could ever hope for – enduring my personality change and my sometimes-volatile emotions. You feel like you can be more normal when someone treats you as though you actually are normal.

15. Has your injury affected your home life and relationships and, if so, how?

Getting things done is a huge challenge. The number of uninitiated and half-finished tasks around my home seem to increase over time. I have good spurts when I get one of them done, but ever more are piling up.

Relationships have changed much… I could write a couple of pages on this.

16. Has your social life been altered or changed and, if so, how?

I don’t socialize at all any more. I am a caregiver for a mother with dementia, so my time is limited. I spend some time each week with my girlfriend, but that’s about the limit of my socializing.

17. Who is your main caregiver? Do you understand what it takes to be a caregiver?

I am my own caregiver. I give special recognition to those in my life who are as patient as they can be with me. I was a caregiver for my son when he came home with his TBI. Back then, I was supportive and non-judgmental, and he’s that way with me now. Through my experience, I realize that I couldn’t come close to understanding what was happening in his mind when I was his caregiver. I think that’s something that only becomes completely clear if you have to go there also.

18. What are your plans? What do you expect/hope to be doing ten years from now?

vegetable-garden-vector-id165638080.jpgTen years from now, I’ll be retired – with a dog by my side and, if all goes well, some chickens, and perhaps even goats, to tend. I hope to garden much and preserve enough each year to fill my pantry and to share with others, to cook, and to work in my shop and become better at crafting.

19. Are you able to provide a helpful hint that may have taken you a long time to learn, but which you wished you had known earlier? If so, please state what it is to potentially help other survivors with your specific kind of brain injury.

I suggest you …

  1. … write things down.

I keep multiple dry-erase whiteboards at work and at home to keep track of things. When you schedule your doctor appointment, start your list of questions immediately, and keep it somewhere obvious so you can’t miss it when it’s time to go. (I use a list app on my phone, so I know I’ll have it when I go.)

  1. … be as patient as you can with those around you.

Unless they’ve experienced a TBI, they really can’t understand your struggles.

  1. … set rules with those who you spend time with.

For example, being able to say, “I need some time alone” and being able to find a quiet place without anyone taking it personally, asking after you, or chasing you down. (The latter was a big one for me. I often just need to escape for a short time.)

20. What advice would you offer to other brain-injury survivors? Do you have any other comments that you would like to add?

Rodney Rod Rawls Survivor 2

Rod – Survivors of Brain Injury

Develop tools that work for you. I highly recommend doing occupational therapy. That’s where I learned to identify the issues that plague me the most and got solid advice on how to develop tools and strategies that make a difference in my life on a daily basis.

Learn how to eat properly to facilitate your recovery and to support your mental function in the long term.

Work with a trusted medical professional to develop the supplement regimen that is best for you.

Meditate. The single greatest impact on my recovery has come from developing a daily meditation practice. I encourage all brain injury survivors to explore meditation. Meditation is a simple and easy-to-learn practice that has been shown to make physical changes to the brain, and it has greatly helped many brain injury survivors.

 

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SPEAK OUT! Itty-Bitty GIANT Steps

SPEAK OUT! Itty-Bitty GIANT Steps – Nolan McDonnell

presented by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

Itty-Bitty GIant Steps for Blog

 

 

SPEAK OUT! Itty-Bitty Giant Steps will provide a venue for brain-injury survivors and caregivers to shout out their accomplishments of the week.

If you have an Itty-Bitty Giant Step and you would like to share it, just send an email to me at donnaodonnellfigurski@gmail.com.

If you are on Facebook, you can simply send a Private Message to me. It need only be a sentence or two. I’ll gather the accomplishments and post them with your name on my blog approximately once a week. (If you do not want your last name to be posted, please tell me in your email or Private Message.)

I hope we have millions of Itty-Bitty Giant Steps.

Nolan McDonnell

 

Nolan McDonnell (survivor) … It might sound small, but I buckled up myself in the wheelchair van for my first time tonight. :

Wheelchair VanMan in wheelchair

 

 

You can learn more about Nolan McDonnell at his website:

Coach Nolan

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As I say after each post:

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SPEAK OUT! Itty-Bitty GIANT Steps

SPEAK OUT! Itty-Bitty GIANT Steps

Itty-Bitty GIant Steps for Blog

 

 

SPEAK OUT! Itty-Bitty Giant Steps will provide a venue for brain-injury survivors and caregivers to shout out their accomplishments of the week.

If you have an Itty-Bitty Giant Step and you would like to share it, just send an email to me at donnaodonnellfigurski@gmail.com.

If you are on Facebook, you can simply send a Private Message to me. It need only be a sentence or two. I’ll gather the accomplishments and post them with your name on my blog approximately once a week. (If you do not want your last name to be posted, please tell me in your email or Private Message.)

I hope we have millions of Itty-Bitty Giant Steps.

 

jennifer-stokely-survivor-052615

Jennifer Stokley – Survivor of Brain Injury

Jennifer Stokley (survivor) … I met a stranger at my door who was sent to do “bug home care” (no notice). I let him in to do his work. I asked questions and had him explain things I needed to misc_welcome2know. I have Severe Anxiety Disorder and huge panic attacks.  Strangers are a HUGE trigger; letting them into my home is even bigger! I handled it all – no anxiety; no nothing!

 

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As I say after each post:

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SPEAK OUT! NewsBit . . . . . . High School Football Game Forfeited After Nine Head Injuries

High School Football Game Forfeited After Nine Head Injuries

presented

by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

 

football-teamA high school football team from Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada, forfeited its game after nine players left the game with possible head injuries. The coach took the precaution of having all players checked at the hospital. Before going to hospital, four players had already displayed symptoms of having a serious concussion (nausea, vomiting), and they still showed symptoms two days later when the article was written.

Illegal hits were not the problem, but the violence of football became even more obvious when the forfeiting team was clearly outmatched by its opponent.  The score was 35-0 about halfway through the game.

football13It is now known that players of US and Canadian football have a high risk of developing a brain injury, and the problem is particularly serious for youth, with their still-developing brains.  Concussions are the most obvious brain injury, but the multiple subconcussive hits common in US and Canadian football can also lead to brain damage, which may not become apparent for several years.  A highly-cited research paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association showed that the degenerative brain disease CTE (chronic traumatic encephalopathy) was found in a low but significant fraction (21%) of players who only played football through high school. CTE was more commonly found (>90%) in the autopsied brains of players who played professionally or only through college. Even with a possible bias in the brains studied, the findings are alarming. As a result of the new knowledge, some players are retiring early (1,2), and parents are becoming concerned. (1. Full story and 2. my radio interview of Cyndy Feasel, Mary Seau, and Debra Pyka, all of whom lost a loved one to football)

onair

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To Life – La Chaim! . . . . . . . Hank Figurski Memorial

To Life – La Chaim!

presented by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

And to death … well, my father-in-law, Hank (Henry) Figurski, did it with grace and dignity.

On January 5th, we said our final farewell to Hank. It was bittersweet. He lived a very long, fulfilled life. He lived surrounded by the love of his family – his sons, his grandchildren and great grandchildren and his brothers and their families. He lived with the dream of someday being reunited with the love of his life, Lydia, in what he believed was the afterlife. We will miss the man that we loved, but his memory will live on in our hearts and our minds.

Hank Figurski La Chaim 111217.png

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