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Archive for March, 2020

New NEWS: . . . . . . . . . Exponential Spread of Coronavirus – Learn About It

Dr. David Figurski Speaks Out about the Exponential Spread of Coronavirus

Learn About It

presented by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

David Columbia Award May 2017

David H. Figurski  Professor Emeritus of Columbia University  Microbiology and Immunology

Why are the WHO, scientists, and some leaders really worried about this pandemic? Why has society been asked to basically shutdown? Why has the governor of California predicted that half of the State will be infected with the new coronavirus?

… because viruses spread exponentially throughout a population.

Exponential spread is a concept that is not intuitive to humans. Here is an easy-to-understand illustration of the explosive power of an exponential function.

Start with $0.01. Then double the amount every day. (You will have $0.02 on day 2, $0.04 on day 3, $0.08 on day 4, etc.) Continue doing this every day for a month (30 days). It’s an piggy-bank-png-clip-art-image-5a1ca3f171b701.9718908215118264174658-1exponential function because every day you double the amount of the previous day (i.e., in this case, you multiply by 2) to get a new amount.

Watch how exponential growth leads to an explosion in the amount.

On day 1, you start with $0.01.1
On day 7, you will have $0.64
On day 14, you will have $81.92
On day 21, you will have $10,485.76
On day 28, you will have $1,342,177.28
On day 30, you will have $5,368,709.12

The number of coronavirus infections in the US is about to explode! The US pandemic is like about day 14 of the example. Some people are still thinking, “No big deal.” They have no idea of what’s about to happen.

A friend sent a link to me of a video that explains exponential growth in simple, very easy to understand math. Have a look. I highly recommend it. (How is Covid-19 Growing?)

People are totally wrong to be complacent about this pandemic. There have been relatively few confirmed cases, so some people are thinking we’ve got this licked. They’re wrong for two reasons. (1) The US was unprepared for this outbreak. Few (except the very sick and some celebrities) have been tested because the US had an insufficient number of test kits. So, it’s an illusion that we are seeing so few people with the virus. (2) They don’t understand the concept of the immense power of exponential spread.Growth_Bar_Graph

The primary reason people are alarmed by the number of infections is the high death rate of people who have been infected. As of this writing, deaths are 11,402 worldwide, while cases are said to be 276,104 (WorldoMeters). Calculated death rates have ranged from 1.4% (the latest, from Wuhan) to 4%.

There are 39 million people in California, and the governor has predicted that about half (19.5 million) will be infected with coronavirus. About 18% of infections are Virus and infection, image illustrationasymptomatic (about 3,500,000 in this scenario). Since the death rate is calculated with symptomatic infections (predicted to be 16 million), the lowest death rate (1.4%) gives 224,000 deaths in Calif. if the governor’s prediction is accurate.

 

David H. Figurski, Ph.D – Molecular Biologist

Columbia University Professor Emeritus

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(Photos compliments of contributor.)

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New NEWS: Dr. David Figurski Speaks Out About Coronavirus

Dr. David Figurski Speaks Out About Coronavirus

presented by

Donna O’Donnell Figurski

 

David Columbia Award May 2017

Professor David Figurski        Columbia University College of Physicians &Surgeons

 

“In graduate school, I worked with a virus that infects bacterial cells (bacteriophage T1). One T1 virus particle takes about 10-12 minutes to break open the E. coli cell and release over 100 new virus particles. Each new particle can infect a cell and produce over a hundred new virus particles. So, 10-12 minutes later, there are 10,000 viruses. I could do some experiments in the morning and have the results that afternoon.

0.40555600_1467108645_microbes

Random Petri Plate

To make stocks of the virus, we would infect a late culture of bacteria. A couple of hours later, all the bacterial cells were broken open, leaving only virus.

1800x1200_coronavirus_1

Coronavirus

 

 

 

Animal viruses, like coronavirus, probably take hours to reproduce, but each infected cell produces at least a thousand new virus particles.

Consequently, I have a healthy respect for viruses.”

David H. Figurski, Ph.D – Molecularbiologist

Columbia University Professor Emeritus

 

(Clip Art compliments of Bing.)

(Photos compliments of contributor.)

As I say after each post:

Please leave a comment by clicking the blue words “Leave a Comment” below this post.

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Feel free to follow my blog. Click on “Follow” on the upper right sidebar.

If you like my blog, share it intact with your friends. It’s easy! Click the “Share” buttons below.

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